Mixing Individual and Collective Behaviours to Predict Out-of-Routine Mobility (preprint)

Predicting human displacements is crucial for addressing various societal challenges, including urban design, traffic congestion, epidemic management, and migration dynamics. While predictive models like deep learning and Markov models offer insights into individual mobility, they often struggle with out-of-routine behaviours. Our study introduces an approach that dynamically integrates individual and collective mobility behaviours, leveraging collective intelligence to enhance prediction accuracy. Evaluating the model on millions of privacy-preserving trajectories across three US cities, we demonstrate its superior performance in predicting out-of-routine mobility, surpassing even advanced deep learning methods. Spatial analysis highlights the model's effectiveness near urban areas with a high density of points of interest, where collective behaviours strongly influence mobility. During disruptive events like the COVID-19 pandemic, our model retains predictive capabilities, unlike individual-based models. By bridging the gap between individual and collective behaviours, our approach offers transparent and accurate predictions, crucial for addressing contemporary mobility challenges.

Enhancing global preparedness during an ongoing pandemic from partial and noisy data (preprint)

As the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread globally, emerging variants such as B.1.1.529 quickly became dominant worldwide. Sustained community transmission favors the proliferation of mutated sub-lineages with pandemic potential, due to cross-national mobility flows, which are responsible for consecutive cases surge worldwide. We show that, in the early stages of an emerging variant, integrating data from national genomic surveillance and global human mobility with large-scale epidemic modeling allows to quantify its pandemic potential, providing quantifiable indicators for pro-active policy interventions. We validate our framework on worldwide spreading variants and gain insights about the pandemic potential of BA.5 and BA.2.75 sub-lineages. Country-level epidemic intelligence is not enough to contrast the pandemic of respiratory pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2 and a scalable integrated approach, i.e. pandemic intelligence, is required to enhance global preparedness.

Multiscale statistical physics of the Human-SARS-CoV-2 interactome (preprint)

Protein-protein interaction (PPI) networks have been used to investigate the influence of SARS-CoV-2 viral proteins on the function of human cells, laying out a deeper understanding of COVID--19 and providing ground for drug repurposing strategies. However, our knowledge of (dis)similarities between this one and other viral agents is still very limited. Here we compare the novel coronavirus PPI network against 45 known viruses, from the perspective of statistical physics. Our results show that classic analysis such as percolation is not sensitive to the distinguishing features of viruses, whereas the analysis of biochemical spreading patterns allows us to meaningfully categorize the viruses and quantitatively compare their impact on human proteins. Remarkably, when Gibbsian-like density matrices are used to represent each system's state, the corresponding macroscopic statistical properties measured by the spectral entropy reveals the existence of clusters of viruses at multiple scales. Overall, our results indicate that SARS-CoV-2 exhibits similarities to viruses like SARS-CoV and Influenza A at small scales, while at larger scales it exhibits more similarities to viruses such as HIV1 and HTLV1.

Multiscale statistical physics of the Human-SARS-CoV-2 interactome (preprint)

Protein-protein interaction (PPI) networks have been used to investigate the influence of SARS-CoV-2 viral proteins on the function of human cells, laying out a deeper understanding of COVID--19 and providing ground for drug repurposing strategies. However, our knowledge of (dis)similarities between this one and other viral agents is still very limited. Here we compare the novel coronavirus PPI network against 45 known viruses, from the perspective of statistical physics. Our results show that classic analysis such as percolation is not sensitive to the distinguishing features of viruses, whereas the analysis of biochemical spreading patterns allows us to meaningfully categorize the viruses and quantitatively compare their impact on human proteins. Remarkably, when Gibbsian-like density matrices are used to represent each system's state, the corresponding macroscopic statistical properties measured by the spectral entropy reveals the existence of clusters of viruses at multiple scales. Overall, our results indicate that SARS-CoV-2 exhibits similarities to viruses like SARS-CoV and Influenza A at small scales, while at larger scales it exhibits more similarities to viruses such as HIV1 and HTLV1.